Supply-Demand Pattern in Tight Balance Coupled With Macro Tailwinds, SHFE Tin Breaks Through 310,000 Mark in Afternoon Session [SMM Tin Midday Review]

At the midday close on December 1, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2601 contract settled at 308,000 yuan/mt, up 6,500 yuan from the previous day, a gain of about 2%, and maintained a strong upward fluctuation trend during the session. The three-month tin contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) experienced a slight correction to $39,305 during Asian trading hours, indicating that overseas markets were also strongly supported by supply concerns. Buying continued to flow into the SHFE tin market today, pushing prices further upward, with market participation significantly increasing, and bullish sentiment still dominating.

The core driver behind tin's strength came from persistently tight supply conditions. The deteriorating security situation in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where the M23 armed group expanded its control and extremist organizations frequently attacked foreign enterprises, sparked deep market concerns about supply chain stability. Although the major Bisie mining area was not directly affected, rising logistics costs and potential disruption risks had already injected a geopolitical premium into prices.

From a macro perspective, factors also provided upward support for tin prices. Rising expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in December put the US dollar under pressure, supporting the valuation of US dollar-denominated base metals; the OPEC+ decision to extend production cuts indirectly boosted sentiment in the commodity sector; with China's Central Economic Work Conference approaching, expectations for industrial policies related to artificial intelligence and new energy became clearer, and improved China-US trade relations optimized the foreign trade environment, collectively boosting market risk appetite. However, high prices had significantly dampened downstream purchase willingness, with solder enterprises' operating rates hovering at low levels, spot trades remaining sluggish, and spot discounts widening slightly, reflecting limited acceptance of current prices in the spot market.

Technically, the explosive growth in trading volume and record-high open interest indicated strong trending upward momentum, but caution was warranted against profit-taking pressure. The fundamental structure remained biased to the upside, with global visible inventory still at historically low levels, constructing a solid floor for prices. The SHFE tin market was expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the afternoon session.